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Volume 6: Last Call · Contents
Appendix B

The Baseline Worksheet

Eight comparable weeks, one flagged night, and the three numbers that define “normal.”

Chapter 23 explained why you need a baseline before you can say anything changed. This appendix gives you the sheet and a worked example. Use eight weeks of the same weekday. Mark any night with a holiday, festival, weather problem, or special event as flagged, and keep it in the table, but leave it out of the normal. Then work out the average, the median, and the swing.

WORKED EXAMPLE, EIGHT THURSDAYS (ILLUSTRATIVE)

  • 1. Door count: 84. First-timers: 9. Returned within 30 days: 4. 30-day return rate: 44%.
  • 2. Door count: 91. First-timers: 11. Returned within 30 days: 4. 30-day return rate: 36%.
  • 3. Door count: 78. First-timers: 8. Returned within 30 days: 3. 30-day return rate: 38%.
  • 4. Door count: 88. First-timers: 10. Returned within 30 days: 3. 30-day return rate: 30%.
  • 5. Door count: 120. First-timers: 19. Returned within 30 days: 6. 30-day return rate: 32%. Flag / note: Flagged: rodeo weekend.
  • 6. Door count: 86. First-timers: 9. Returned within 30 days: 3. 30-day return rate: 33%.
  • 7. Door count: 80. First-timers: 7. Returned within 30 days: 3. 30-day return rate: 43%.
  • 8. Door count: 93. First-timers: 12. Returned within 30 days: 4. 30-day return rate: 33%.

Return rate is returned ÷ first-timers, rounded: 4 ÷ 9 = 44%, 4 ÷ 11 = 36%, 3 ÷ 8 = 38%, 3 ÷ 10 = 30%, 6 ÷ 19 = 32%, 3 ÷ 9 = 33%, 3 ÷ 7 = 43%, 4 ÷ 12 = 33%.

THE MATH

Door count, flagged night left out (7 weeks). 84 + 91 + 78 + 88 + 86 + 80 + 93 = 600. Average: 600 ÷ 7 = about 86. Sorted: 78, 80, 84, 86, 88, 91, 93. Median (the middle one): 86. Swing: 78 to 93.

With the flagged night included (8 weeks). 600 + 120 = 720, and 720 ÷ 8 = 90. The median is the average of the two middle numbers, 86 and 88, which is 87. The flagged night pulls the average up by four and would make a normal Thursday look weak.

First-timers, flagged night left out. 9 + 11 + 8 + 10 + 9 + 7 + 12 = 66. Average: 66 ÷ 7 = about 9.4 a night.

Thirty-day return, flagged night left out. Returned: 4 + 4 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 4 = 24, out of 66 first-timers. 24 ÷ 66 = about 36%. Night by night the rate ran from 30% to 44%, so the swing is 30%–44%. Counts are small, so one person moves a night by ten points.

How to use it. A Thursday of 100 is above the 78–93 swing, which is worth noticing. A Thursday of 84 is normal, whatever it feels like. A return rate of 38% is inside the swing, so it proves nothing.

YOUR BASELINE WORKSHEET

Choose one weekday or one kind of night. Use eight comparable weeks. Fill in return counts after thirty days have passed.

Fill in: Room or program, Night, Weeks from / to.

Columns to fill in: Week, Date, Door count, First-timers, Returned in 30 days, Return rate, Flag / note. Copy as many rows as you need.

YOUR THREE NUMBERS

Columns to fill in: Number, Unflagged weeks only, Average, Median, Swing (lowest–highest). Copy as many rows as you need.

Write the average, median, and swing on one card and keep it with the scoreboard from Chapter 30. Redo the baseline each quarter or whenever the room changes in a big way.